Electoral democracy must work: How 2025 General elections can reclaim Tanzania’s peaceful electoral glory.

Author: Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic policy Centre

Ahead of the 2025 general elections, the electoral violence that first manifested itself in 1995 and 2000 in Zanzibar with the CUF as a player appears to be taking grip on mainland Tanzania. Religious leaders and experts warn that the drums of violence are being sounded.  A new consensus to peace must be pursued.

From our historical analysis (as presented in the previous briefs), Tanzania’s electoral democracy that started in 1995 has suffered some contradictions and setbacks.  Throughout this period Tanzania has witnessed episodes of electoral violence which climaxed with extreme violence during the Zanzibar 2000 general elections. Although in the first ten years of multiparty electoral democracy the level of electoral violence was centred in Zanzibar, after the two political accords ( Muafaka 1 & Muafaka II) this unpleasant violence gradually shifted to Tanzania Mainland.

With advent of new emerging opposition political parties such as CHADEMA, the contours of electoral violence were remapped and have continued to manifest themselves in different forms and at different levels. Over the past electoral cycles people have been reported killed and many more injured in electoral related violence.  Perhaps this is not what was contemplated by Mwl Nyerere when Tanzania adopted multiparty democracy in 1995.

Lessons from neighboring countries reveal that democracy is fragile and peace can be raptured. Moreover, the persistent and excessive violent oppression of the opposition makes its cause and leaders more popular. The perceived sense of unfairness and injustice endears the public to the opposition and can lead to a sympathy vote.

As Tanzania goes to the 2025 general elections and more future to electoral cycles come, the government and political actors can perform better.  Preventing violent electoral conflicts should be a key priority for safeguarding the democratic and development achievements so far. The economic effects of violent elections often last well beyond the election period and can spill over to other sectors. In Kenya the manufacturing sectors were affected while in Zanzibar the tourism sector suffered significant loses. Moreover, in the aftermath of an electoral conflict, restoring investor confidence and rebuilding trust can take long time to bounce back to its pre violence period. Conducting a free, fair and peaceful election and securing its outcome must always be priority.

The arrest and detention of opposition leaders such as Tundu Lissu, alongside the disqualification of opposition candidates such as CHADEMA party from the 2025 general elections signals a disturbing development and potential regression in political freedoms and democratic governance.  The disappearance of vocal government critics such as Amb Humphrey Pole Pole and threats for a nationwide demonstration ahead of the general election further complicates the state of our democracy.

Such perceived repression undermines fundamental democratic principles and freedoms to choose leaders. Criminalizing peaceful protests and political participation, especially in an election year, has far-reaching implications for the legitimacy of the entire electoral process and the need to uphold democratic principles. A democracy cannot thrive if political actors are excluded, intimidated or arbitrarily detained^[1]. Political consensus and solutions to the root causes of this emerging trend must be addressed. Elections can be held without an aura of fear, violence and Tanzania can reclaim its glory as the stablishing variable in the region.

Key recommendations for addressing electoral violence in Tanzania

For Tanzania and East Africa generally to enjoy peaceful elections, electoral reforms must be undertaken and respected. These must include some tweaks to electoral systems, particularly a re-examination whether the current First Past the Post System is fitted for purpose and context. Managing the power of the incumbency, demonetizing electoral processes, reducing the role of security agencies and strengthening the role of independent electoral management bodies in delivering a free, fair and peaceful election are other areas that must be addressed.

Moreover, the following specific actions can be taken.

1. Release and accounting for all detained and missing opposition political leaders and lifting the ban on political mobilisation and freedoms to campaign during electoral seasons
2. Implementation of key electoral and political reforms to promote inclusion-Example of the Muafaka I&II and Zanzibar electoral reforms for political inclusivity that have generated some level of stability in Zanzibar can be replicated on the mainland Tanzania
3. Total de-escalation, de-militarization and reduction of the role of security agencies in elections- This includes among others delivering civic education to the security agencies on elections, the roles of the security agencies in elections and electoral management in a multiparty dispensation.
4. Avoiding militant like sloganeering and aggressive posture by political actors which can incite their supporters and the public, drawing in the attention and wrath of security organs into an electoral process.
5. Increased free Civic Education of the masses, and allowing civil society and other independent actors to fully participate in civic education, election monitoring and observation. This is important in bolstering trust and integrity of the electoral processes and their outcomes.
6. Review the existing electoral laws, invest in transparent election systems including declaration of results so as to increase trust in electoral outcomes. Chances of a peaceful election are higher if every vote is counted and secured in transparent manner.
7. Demonetization of electoral processes by reduction or total elimination of money in elections.  Control of the use of money for electoral campaigns and limiting monetary rewards for electoral positions can reduce political contestation and agitation for power, vested interests, susceptibility to corruption, vote buying and the role of criminal gangs for hire in electoral processes.
8. Addressing the core concerns of the citizenry such as economic marginalization and the failure of the state to deliver better social services, and the ruling political elites to deliver on their promises. These serve as key drivers for electoral violence as citizens get easily duped to back those who bribe more or present themselves with false promises for a better future.
9. Let diversity of political opinions and electoral democracy shrive.

References

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Hassan Kaya (2004)  Electoral Violence, Political Stability and the Union in Tanzania, available at https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/electoral-violence-political-stability-and-the-union-in-tanzania/ accessed on 17 April 2025

Human Rights Watch (2001) Uganda’s Presidential and Parliamentary polls available at https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/africa/uganda0206/3.htm accessed 22 April 2025

Human Rights Watch (2017) Kenya: Post-Election Killings, Abuse available at https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/08/27/kenya-post-election-killings-abuse; accessed on 22 April 2025

Human Rights Watch (2021) Uganda: Elections Marred by Violence available at https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/21/uganda-elections-marred-violence , accessed on 22 April 2025

Kituo Cha Katiba (2003) CONSTITUTIONALISM AND POLITICAL STABILITY IN ZANZIBAR: THE SEARCH FOR A NEW VISION; A Report of the Fact-Finding Mission Organised under the Auspices of Kituo Cha Katiba; available at https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/tanzania/02112.pdf accessed on 17 April 2025

National Crimes Research Centre (2019) available at https://crimeresearch.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Issue-Brief-on-State-of-Organized-Criminal-Gangs-in-Kenya.pdf

Okech Achieng Matilda. The Impact of Electoral Violence on Economic Development: A Case of Kenya. Journal of Political Science and International Relations. Vol. 1, No. 3, 2018, pp. 55-71. doi: 10.11648/j.jpsir.20180103.11, available at https://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/article/10.11648/j.jpsir.20180103.11 accessed on 17 April 2025

OWP: The Organisation for World Peace (2024) Brutal Violence Against the Opposing Party in Tanzania https://theowp.org/brutal-violence-against-the-opposing-party-in-tanzania/ accessed on 17 April 2025

TEMCO (1997) The 1995 General Elections in Tanzania; Report of Tanzania Elections Monitoring Committee available at https://www.africanbookscollective.com/books/the-1995-general-elections-in-tanzania Accessed on 17 April 2025

[1] https://www.chr.up.ac.za/latest-news/4007-press-statement-democracy-and-elections-under-threat-in-tanzania-centre-for-human-rights-calls-for-the-release-of-opposition-leader-tundu-lissu-and-demands-restoration-of-political-freedoms